Could elephants really become extinct in our lifetimes? Media coverage is now referring to elephants as “living dinosaurs.” An oxymoron? Not really. More of a prediction.
A grim future for elephants is suggested when we take a long term look at what has happened over the passed 600 years, using information from the recently released Great Elephant Census:
1500: Around 26 million elephants are estimated to roam the African continent when Europeans began exploring there.
1900: In 400 years, the population has been reduced to about 10 million due to aggressive trophy hunting and the ivory trade. The US consumes 200 tons of ivory a year.
1950s: 250 elephants are killed each day to satisfy demand for ivory.
1979: Elephants are listed as a “threatened” species under the Endangered Species Act in the US; internationally, CITES is to regulate ivory trade. Ian Douglas Hamilton conducts first pan-African survey, estimating the elephant population at 1.3 million.
1989: Elephant population halved over last decade with 600,000 remaining. CITES lists the African elephant on Appendix I, creating a ban on the international trade of ivory.
1990s: Elephant populations in East Africa begin to recover.
1999: CITES approves a “one time” sale of ivory from Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe ivory stockpiles to Japan. A second sale to China and Japan is permitted in 2008.
2007: CITES implement 9 year moratorium on ivory sales from stockpiles as the increasing demand for ivory is not satisfied by these sales and leads to dramatic increase in poaching.
2016: Death rate is one elephant every 15 minutes. Great Elephant Census shows elephant populations at 352,000, down 30% from 2007.
The calculus of this population decline is unassailable. We will not have healthy, sustainable elephant populations in the wild in our lifetimes if the demand for ivory is not shut down. And, yes, like the dinosaurs who once walked this earth, our present-day largest land mammal could also become extinct.
Thank you to the Great Elephant Census , a partnership between Paul Allen and Vulcan, who provided the funding, Elephants Without Borders, African Parks, Wildlife Conservation Society, TheNature Conservancy, Frankfurt Zoological Society and the IUCN African Elephant Specialist Group.
